When will the Moon be ready?
Our estimate is around 2050. Here is every step on the way, a source for each one, and exactly how we got the number.
~2050
8 milestones to a Moon city
- 01
Humans fly around the Moon
Done Apr 10, 2026SourcesNASA
- 02
Starship reaches orbit
Done Sep 28, 2026SourcesAstronomy.comSatellite Today
- 03
Tower catches the ship
Not yet- Official target
- Nov 2026Elon Musk, said on Oct 10, 2026
Flight 15 hopefully in 4-6 weeks
- Our estimate
- early 2027
SourcesTesla North
- 04
Refueling in orbit
Not yet- Official target
- Dec 2026NASA (planning)
- Our estimate
- 2027–2028
SourcesWikipedia
- 05
Starship lands on the Moon (uncrewed)
Not yet- Official target
- Mar 2027SpaceX (to investors, via WSJ), said on Feb 6, 2026
- Our estimate
- mid 2028
SourcesTime
- 06
Humans walk on the Moon again
Not yet- Official target
- 2028NASA (Artemis IV), said on Feb 27, 2026
- Our estimate
- 2029–2030
SourcesCNN via KVIA
- 07
People live at a Moon base
Not yet- Official target
- 2032NASA (Moon base phase 3), said on May 26, 2026
- Our estimate
- 2035–2038
SourcesFOX6BNN Bloomberg
- 08
A Moon city opens to everyone
Not yet- Official target
- 2036Elon Musk (X post), said on Feb 8, 2026
SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years
- Our estimate
- ~2050
SourcesTimeThe Space Review
How we estimate
Big space goals tend to arrive late. So we take each official target and stretch it by how late Elon Musk's past public promises actually arrived.
Estimate = date of the claim + (promised date − date of the claim) × delay
The delay is 2.37: the median across 13 public promises that were later delivered. Promises that were cancelled or never delivered aren't counted, so the real delay is probably longer.
Example: in February 2026 Musk said a self-growing Moon city could happen in under 10 years. 10 years × 2.37 is about 24 years, which lands around 2050.
If things go faster than history suggests (× 1.5), it's 2041. Using only SpaceX's own record (× 3.03), it's 2056.
We recalculate whenever a milestone is completed or an official timeline changes.
Latest
Tesla Roadster hops on thrusters, uncrewed
The 2018 'SpaceX package' promise finally showed up as an uncrewed thruster hop at McGregor. Production target: 2028.
SourcesTechCrunch
Next: catch the ship
Musk: Flight 15 "hopefully in 4-6 weeks", aiming for the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket.
MilestoneTower catches the ship
SourcesTesla North
Starship reached orbit
Flight 14 made orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Milestone 2 of 8 complete.
MilestoneStarship reaches orbit
SourcesAstronomy.com
Estimates, not promises. Not affiliated with SpaceX, NASA or Tesla.
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