{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "updatedAt": "2026-10-21T04:30:47Z",
  "method": {
    "formula": "estimate = claimDate + (promisedDate - claimDate) * multiplier",
    "multiplier": 2.37,
    "multiplierSample": 13,
    "multiplierNote": "Median delay of Elon Musk's delivered public promises (13 delivered of 19 tracked). Cancelled/undelivered items excluded, so the true multiplier is likely higher.",
    "sourceDoc": "docs/research/2026-10-20-elon-time-track-record.md"
  },
  "moonReady": {
    "estimateYear": 2050,
    "lowYear": 2041,
    "highYear": 2056,
    "basis": "Musk 2026-02-08: self-growing Moon city in under 10 years (by 2036). x2.37 -> ~2050; x1.5 -> 2041; SpaceX-only x3.03 -> 2056.",
    "countdownTarget": "2050-01-01"
  },
  "milestones": [
    {
      "id": "crewed-lunar-flyby",
      "order": 1,
      "title": {
        "en": "Humans fly around the Moon",
        "zh-Hant": "人類繞月飛行",
        "zh-Hans": "人类绕月飞行"
      },
      "status": "done",
      "doneAt": "2026-04-10",
      "official": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "NASA",
          "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-welcomes-record-setting-artemis-ii-moonfarers-back-to-earth/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "starship-orbit",
      "order": 2,
      "title": {
        "en": "Starship reaches orbit",
        "zh-Hant": "Starship 進入軌道",
        "zh-Hans": "Starship 进入轨道"
      },
      "status": "done",
      "doneAt": "2026-09-28",
      "official": null,
      "estimate": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Astronomy.com",
          "url": "https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/"
        },
        {
          "name": "Satellite Today",
          "url": "https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/28/spacexs-starship-reaches-orbit-cuts-10-hour-mission-short-after-engine-issue/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ship-catch",
      "order": 3,
      "title": {
        "en": "Tower catches the ship",
        "zh-Hant": "發射塔接住船體",
        "zh-Hans": "发射塔接住船体"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2026-11",
        "claimedBy": "Elon Musk",
        "claimedAt": "2026-10-10",
        "quote": "Flight 15 hopefully in 4-6 weeks"
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "early 2027",
        "year": 2027.1
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Tesla North",
          "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/10/elon-targets-starship-flight-15-ship-catch-in-4-6-weeks"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "orbital-refueling",
      "order": 4,
      "title": {
        "en": "Refueling in orbit",
        "zh-Hant": "軌道上加油",
        "zh-Hans": "轨道上加油"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2026-12",
        "claimedBy": "NASA (planning)",
        "claimedAt": null,
        "quote": null
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "2027–2028",
        "year": 2027.5
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Wikipedia",
          "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "uncrewed-lunar-landing",
      "order": 5,
      "title": {
        "en": "Starship lands on the Moon (uncrewed)",
        "zh-Hant": "Starship 無人登月",
        "zh-Hans": "Starship 无人登月"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2027-03",
        "claimedBy": "SpaceX (to investors, via WSJ)",
        "claimedAt": "2026-02-06",
        "quote": null
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "mid 2028",
        "year": 2028.5
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Time",
          "url": "https://time.com/7373155/elon-musk-mars-moon-city/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "crewed-lunar-landing",
      "order": 6,
      "title": {
        "en": "Humans walk on the Moon again",
        "zh-Hant": "人類重返月面",
        "zh-Hans": "人类重返月面"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2028",
        "claimedBy": "NASA (Artemis IV)",
        "claimedAt": "2026-02-27",
        "quote": null
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "2029–2030",
        "year": 2029.5
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "CNN via KVIA",
          "url": "https://kvia.com/cnn-other/2026/02/27/nasa-abruptly-adds-a-new-step-to-its-path-to-moon-landing-as-a-race-with-china-looms/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "permanent-base",
      "order": 7,
      "title": {
        "en": "People live at a Moon base",
        "zh-Hant": "月球基地有人長住",
        "zh-Hans": "月球基地有人长住"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2032",
        "claimedBy": "NASA (Moon base phase 3)",
        "claimedAt": "2026-05-26",
        "quote": null
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "2035–2038",
        "year": 2036.5
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "FOX6",
          "url": "https://www.fox6now.com/news/nasa-moon-base-phase-plan-timeline"
        },
        {
          "name": "BNN Bloomberg",
          "url": "https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/24/nasa-to-spend-us20-billion-on-moon-base-cancel-orbiting-lunar-station/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "moon-city",
      "order": 8,
      "title": {
        "en": "A Moon city opens to everyone",
        "zh-Hant": "一般人可住的月球城市",
        "zh-Hans": "普通人可住的月球城市"
      },
      "status": "pending",
      "doneAt": null,
      "official": {
        "date": "2036",
        "claimedBy": "Elon Musk (X post)",
        "claimedAt": "2026-02-08",
        "quote": "SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years"
      },
      "estimate": {
        "label": "~2050",
        "year": 2050
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Time",
          "url": "https://time.com/7373155/elon-musk-mars-moon-city/"
        },
        {
          "name": "The Space Review",
          "url": "https://www.thespacereview.com/article/5160/1"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "feed": [
    {
      "id": "2026-10-20-spacex-to-try-catching-both-starship",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "milestoneId": "ship-catch",
      "title": {
        "en": "SpaceX to try catching both Starship stages",
        "zh-Hant": "SpaceX 下次試飛要同時接住兩節 Starship",
        "zh-Hans": "SpaceX 下次试飞要同时接住两级 Starship"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "Elon Musk says SpaceX will try to recover both Starship stages on the next test flight, expected in November. Catching the ship as well as the booster is the next step on the road to the Moon.",
        "zh-Hant": "馬斯克表示，SpaceX 下次試飛將嘗試回收 Starship 的兩節箭體，預計 11 月進行。連船體一起接住，是通往月球的下一步。",
        "zh-Hans": "马斯克表示，SpaceX 下次试飞将尝试回收 Starship 的两级箭体，预计 11 月进行。连船体一起接住，是通往月球的下一步。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Space.com",
          "url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-will-attempt-1st-ever-double-starship-rocket-catch-on-next-test-launch-a-profound-technology-milestone-elon-musk-says"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-20-nasa-updates-progress-on-moon-base",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "milestoneId": "permanent-base",
      "title": {
        "en": "NASA updates progress on Moon Base rovers",
        "zh-Hant": "NASA 更新月球基地探測車進度",
        "zh-Hans": "NASA 更新月球基地月球车进度"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "NASA says crewed and robotic rovers will support early Moon Base work: technology demos, astronaut transport, terrain mapping and resource prospecting. Data from these missions will shape the systems astronauts need to live and work on the Moon.",
        "zh-Hant": "NASA 表示，載人與無人探測車將支援月球基地初期工作，包括技術展示、載送太空人、地形測繪與資源探勘。這些任務的資料，將決定太空人在月球生活與工作所需的系統。",
        "zh-Hans": "NASA 表示，载人与无人月球车将支持月球基地初期工作，包括技术演示、运送航天员、地形测绘与资源勘探。这些任务的数据，将决定航天员在月球生活与工作所需的系统。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "NASA",
          "url": "https://www.nasa.gov/missions/moon-base/nasa-provides-progress-update-on-moon-base-rovers/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-20-esa-lunar-link-finishes-final-testing",
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "milestoneId": null,
      "title": {
        "en": "ESA Lunar Link finishes final testing",
        "zh-Hant": "ESA 月球通訊模組 Lunar Link 完成測試",
        "zh-Hans": "ESA 月球通信模块 Lunar Link 完成测试"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "ESA's Lunar Link telecommunications element completed its final major integration and testing campaign at Thales Alenia Space in Cannes, France, and is ready for its next stage.",
        "zh-Hant": "ESA 的 Lunar Link 通訊模組已在法國坎城的 Thales Alenia Space 完成最後一輪大型整合與測試，準備進入下一階段。",
        "zh-Hans": "ESA 的 Lunar Link 通信模块已在法国戛纳的 Thales Alenia Space 完成最后一轮大型整合与测试，准备进入下一阶段。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "ESA",
          "url": "https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Lunar_Link_complete_and_ready_for_a_new_adventure"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-15-roadster-hop",
      "date": "2026-10-15",
      "milestoneId": null,
      "title": {
        "en": "Tesla Roadster hops on thrusters, uncrewed",
        "zh-Hant": "Tesla Roadster 無人推進器跳躍示範",
        "zh-Hans": "Tesla Roadster 无人推进器跳跃演示"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "The 2018 'SpaceX package' promise finally showed up as an uncrewed thruster hop at McGregor. Production target: 2028.",
        "zh-Hant": "2018 年承諾的「SpaceX 套件」終於以無人推進器跳躍亮相，地點是 McGregor。量產目標 2028。",
        "zh-Hans": "2018 年承诺的“SpaceX 套件”终于以无人推进器跳跃亮相，地点是 McGregor。量产目标 2028。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "TechCrunch",
          "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/15/tesla-reveals-spacex-powered-roadster-that-flies-and-falls-with-style/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-10-flight15",
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "milestoneId": "ship-catch",
      "title": {
        "en": "Next: catch the ship",
        "zh-Hant": "下一步：接住船體",
        "zh-Hans": "下一步：接住船体"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "Musk: Flight 15 \"hopefully in 4-6 weeks\", aiming for the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket.",
        "zh-Hant": "馬斯克：Flight 15「希望 4 到 6 週內」，目標是第一次完整回收軌道級火箭。",
        "zh-Hans": "马斯克：Flight 15“希望 4 到 6 周内”，目标是第一次完整回收轨道级火箭。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Tesla North",
          "url": "https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/10/elon-targets-starship-flight-15-ship-catch-in-4-6-weeks"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-09-28-flight14-orbit",
      "date": "2026-09-28",
      "milestoneId": "starship-orbit",
      "title": {
        "en": "Starship reached orbit",
        "zh-Hant": "Starship 進入軌道",
        "zh-Hans": "Starship 进入轨道"
      },
      "body": {
        "en": "Flight 14 made orbit and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Milestone 2 of 8 complete.",
        "zh-Hant": "Flight 14 進入軌道並放出 26 顆 Starlink V3 衛星。8 個里程碑完成第 2 個。",
        "zh-Hans": "Flight 14 进入轨道并释放 26 颗 Starlink V3 卫星。8 个里程碑完成第 2 个。"
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Astronomy.com",
          "url": "https://www.astronomy.com/whats-launching-this-week/starship-reaches-orbit-on-14th-test-flight/"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}